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Thursday, March 13, 2008

Interest rates are hurting, the slow down has begun

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The government has been reiterating its focus on maintaining a balance between managing inflation with growth but it seems to be struggling on both fronts - inflation crossed 5% last week and the latest industrial output numbers released today show a sharp slowdown in growth.

Compared to an 11.6% surge last January, industrial production growth in January 2008 has more than halved to 5.3% hitting key "growth-driver" sectors: manufacturing, capital goods, mining, electricity and consumer durables (which actually saw negative growth).

While production numbers have been slowing down from the double-digit growth seen at the start of the financial year, the January data has shown the sharpest slump, indicating that the Reserve Bank of India's policy of holding lending rates for the past one year in the hope of managing inflation, is hurting.

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